Stocks

                      Predicting Recessions While recessions cannot be predicted exactly, there are some ways to calculate the probabilities at which they can occur at certain time. This article was originally posted on Quora website before the Corona-19 recession.  Let's do some calculations. Calculation 1 Time between recessions  after World War 2 is (in months): 45,39,24,106,36,58,12,92,120,73, x. Here x is the time between June 2009 (end of the Great Recession) and next recession in months. What can we say about x? Using this calculator  Standard Deviation Calculator  we can calculate that the mean value of x is 60.5 months with sample  standard deviation  36.1 months. This means that by July 2020 the probability for recession will climb up to 97% and  by the end of 2020 the probability for recession is more than 98%.  Calculatio