Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) – Investment Thesis: Scaling the Crypto Economy with Institutional Precision

Vision & Positioning

Coinbase Global, Inc. was founded in 2012 with a bold mission: to increase economic freedom in the world. Today, it stands as the most trusted platform for individuals and institutions to buy, sell, store, and build with crypto. Headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware, Coinbase has evolved into a full-stack financial infrastructure provider for the global crypto economy.

The company’s platform supports a wide range of services:

  • Retail and institutional trading across thousands of crypto assets.

  • Custody, payments, and developer tools for building crypto-native applications.

  • Enterprise-grade infrastructure for secure asset management and blockchain integration.

Strategic Highlights (2025)

  • “Everything Exchange” Strategy: Coinbase now supports over 40,000 tradable assets in the U.S., positioning itself as the most comprehensive crypto marketplace.

  • Deribit Acquisition: Boosted derivatives volume to $840 billion, expanding Coinbase’s footprint in institutional crypto trading.

  • $TON Listing: Coinbase launched global trading for Toncoin ($TON), the native token of The Open Network, integrated with Telegram’s ecosystem.

  • December 2025 “Next Chapter” Tease: CEO Brian Armstrong announced a major reveal for Dec 17, sparking speculation around tokenized stocks, prediction markets, or a Base token.

Financial Performance (Q3 2025)

  • Revenue: $1.9 billion

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $801 million

  • Net Income: $66 million

  • Subscription & Services Revenue: $698 million, up 9% QoQ

  • Stablecoin Revenue: $298 million, up 32% QoQ

  • USDC Holdings: $12 billion, up 49% QoQ

Coinbase’s financials reflect a strong rebound from prior volatility, driven by diversified revenue streams and operational discipline. The company’s ability to monetize beyond trading — through subscriptions, stablecoins, and infrastructure — is a key differentiator.

Regulatory Posture & Risk Management

CEO Brian Armstrong continues to emphasize a “compliance-first” strategy, reinforcing Coinbase’s role as a regulated, publicly traded exchange. The company’s inclusion in the S&P 500 Index (May 2025) further validates its institutional credibility.

Competitive Landscape

Coinbase competes with Binance, Kraken, and emerging DeFi platforms. Its edge lies in:

  • Regulatory clarity and U.S. market leadership.

  • Institutional-grade infrastructure and custody solutions.

  • Developer ecosystem powered by Coinbase Cloud and Base.

Statistical Trend Analysis: Mann-Kendall Trend Test  on COIN quarterly earnings

Reported EPS Series for last 20 quarters: [0.28, 0.14, 2.15, 1.04, -0.01, -0.5, -0.34, -2.46, -2.43, -4.76, -1.98, 3.32, 1.62, 3.45, 3.09, 0.41, 0.605, 0.605, 0.0725, 0.0725]

Tau (trend strength): 0.042105

p-value: 0.820152

Trend: no trend

A Mann-Kendall test on COIN’s EPS over 20 quarters shows no statistically significant trend (Tau = 0.042, p = 0.82). This reflects earnings volatility typical of early-stage infrastructure plays in emerging markets.

CEO-Level Takeaway

Coinbase is executing a multi-pronged strategy to scale the crypto economy — expanding asset coverage, deepening institutional liquidity, and building developer infrastructure. With strong Q3 results, strategic acquisitions, and a compliance-first ethos, Coinbase is positioned as a durable leader in digital finance. The upcoming December announcement could mark a pivotal inflection point in its platform evolution.

 


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